The stage is set for Super Bowl LVI! The NFC champion Rams will meet the AFC champion Bengals in Super Bowl LVI on Sunday, Feb. 13, at 6:30 p.m. ET. In an interesting turn of events, the NFC champions will host the Super Bowl in their home stadium for the second year in a row.
The odds for Super Bowl LVI MVP are out and it’s no surprise to see Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow favored. The Rams are favored and so is Stafford at +110. Burrow is not far behind at +210. These odds correlate with the Moneyline for each team; the Rams are -200 the Bengals are +170. Going into NFL Championship weekend, Stafford’s odds sat at +330.
Quarterbacks dominate the award, having won 31 of 55 times. Running backs and wide receivers have each won the award seven times. On the defensive side of the ball, linebackers (four) have won the most times. If you think the Bengals will pull off the upset Burrow at +210 is probably a good bet, as you’ll get better odds than the traditional Moneyline.
How MVP voting works
MVP voting typically takes place in the press box with more than five minutes remaining in the game. That means media members must lock in their votes with the game still undecided. That’s why the quarterback so often ends up being the MVP. Media votes count for 80 percent of the total while fan votes on NFL.com count for 20 percent.
Betting Analysis
As for who will win it this year, it depends on how the game flows. If allowed, both teams would probably love it if their quarterback could take over the game and control the outcome. Both have the talent to do so, but neither can do it alone.
With the impact Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr., and Ja’Marr Chase have had in the playoffs, it is not hard to see one of them have a game like Julian Edelman did in Super Bowl LIII or Santonio Holmes in Super Bowl XLIII. Joe Mixon or Cam Akers will undoubtedly be in the conversation should either team get the ground game on track.
Both teams have stellar defenses that will not make it easy for the other team’s quarterback—which opens the door for a defensive player to win. It is not hard to see Aaron Donald keeping Joe Burrow from getting on track. Trey Hendrickson will be doing his best to have a similar impact on Matthew Stafford.
Cincinnati Bengals longshot MVP odds
If you want to go outside of the quarterback box, the best value for the Bengals may be in either Tee Higgens (+5000) or Tyler Boyd (+10000) as it is likely that Jalen Ramsey will cover Chase around the field to shut him down. It’s possible to see a scenario where Higgins or Boyd has great games because the Rams are focused on shutting down Chase.
Los Angeles Rams longshot MVP odds
I think the Rams are a tough matchup for the Bengals, especially with their offensive line struggles. Aaron Donald (+2000) is the best defensive player in the league and he could take home the award if the Rams defense dominates and Donald puts on a show. The media is familiar with Donald and if the Rams offense struggles but they still win the game, Donald may get the nod.
On the offensive side of the ball, Odell Beckham Jr. (+2500) continues to shine for the Rams. He’s scored six touchdowns in 11 games with the Rams. He’s averaging nearly 79 yards per game in the playoffs and the Bengals’ secondary can be carved up by the big play. Cooper Kupp sits at +600 and as he is Stafford’s No. 1 target; he’s probably the most likely non-quarterback to win this year.
