It’s the game we all had waited for after the 2021 schedule was released Bills vs. Chiefs. Week 5. Sunday Night Football. Last week we saw Tom Brady returning to New England.
It will be another primetime game for the Chiefs, with the game set to be played on Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is at 7:20 p.m. CT on Sunday, Oct. 10, from Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs enter this game as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 56.5 points. Buffalo Bills are +125 on the money line, Kansas City Chiefs -145.
While a Bills win won’t dethrone Kansas City as the kings of the conference, it will show they at least can when that time comes. A loss doesn’t take that away either, but will push the Bills to 0-3 against Patrick Mahomes and Co. over the past 12 months. Bills lost their opening game to what now looks like a weak Pittsburgh Steelers squad. Mahomes and Co. are 2-2 and a loss will put them 2-3 in a strong division.
We expected a shootout both times the Bills and Chiefs squared-off last season. It never happened. Kansas City Chiefs outscored Buffalo 64-41, scoring 8 touchdowns in two games to 4 by the Bills. Josh Allen’s resume for MVP runner-up was not highlighted by his performance in those two defeats, completing 50.7% of his passes for 409 yards, 4 touchdowns to 2 interceptions. But this Chiefs defense has been bad to open the season, so the time is now for the Bills offense to do what they do.
KC is allowing 31.3 points per game on 437.8 yards per game, both ranking second most in the NFL. Opponents are averaging 291.8 passing yards per game (27th) and 146 rushing yards per game (30th). They rank just about at the bottom in yards allowed per play, both passing and rushing as well.
Bills is allowing 11.0 points per game on 216.8 yards per game, both ranked best in the NFL. Opponents are averaging 148.8 passing yards per game (1st). They have allowed 3 touchdowns all season and already have 7 interceptions.
The Chiefs secondary has a bit of a different look at cornerback. Charvarius Ward is the only one who played in both games a year ago. L’Jarius Sneed only saw action in the AFC title game, allowing four catches on six targets his way. Former 1st round pick Mike Hughes was acquired this offseason from Minnesota. He’s allowed 16 receptions on 24 targets this season and three TDs.
Of course the holdovers are ones to keep an eye on, with Tyrann Mathieu one of the best safeties in the NFL, paired with Daniel Sorenson. This is a group Allen can take advantage of just like Baker Mayfield (21/28 for 321 yards and INT), Justin Herbert (26/38 for 281 yards and 4 TDs), and Jalen Hurts (32/48 for 387 yards and 2 TDs) have early this season.
One part of Allen’s issues against KC last season was the amount of pressure he felt from their defense. He was blitzed 32 times, pressured 24, hit 11, hurried 9, and sacked 4 times in two games.
The Bills did some shuffling on their offensive line last week and plan on sticking with those changes on the right side, with Spencer Brown at right tackle and Daryl Williams right guard. Jon Feliciano has cleared concussion protocol and should slide back in to his starting spot at left guard.
KC’s defense only has seven sacks through four games, tied for 23rd in the league. Their dynamic duo on the defensive line has been tinkered and dealt with injuries. Frank Clark has played only one game while working through a hamstring injury. Chris Jones has moved to DT and has two sacks while being tied for the team lead with 8 pressures. However, he’s up in the air with a wrist injury. Jarran Reed comes over after five seasons with Seattle and played well. How the Bills can hold up against the pressure will certainly help turn the tide for Allen against KC’s D. Should Allens O-line protect his this sunday we should see a succesfull game for what could be a future MVP in Josh Allen.
Kansas City Chiefs avoided a third straight loss as they overcame Philadelphia Eagles last week but their defense continues to struggle and that weakness could and probably will be exploited by Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs allowed 30 points in their win over the Eagles, meaning they have conceded at least 29 points in each of their four games so far this year. That is a worry for them, especially as the Bills scored 40 points in their shutout win over Houston Texans last week. This will be a much tougher task but with the Bills scoring at least 35 in their last three games, they have the offensive talent to get the better of the Chiefs in a game that looks set to produce at least 56 points. When considering that Patrick Mahomes has a 39-2 career record (incl. playoffs) when KC allows fewer than 30 points (7-10 when KC allows 30+ points) a win condition for Bills will be to produce 30+ points on sunday.
Pick of the Game
Take Buffalo Bills +3.0 -120 so we cover a late field goal. This will be a shootout as Kansas defense is in need of a total overhaul. But when you put that much money in your offense it’s impossible. Have a great game.