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Tamba Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots

Having been selected to be this week's Sunday Night Football, we should see a great game against two potential playoff candidates. First, read this article and find out what you should be careful about before you put money on the line, and later in the article, you will find this week's pick of the game.

BETTING RESOURCES

  • Matchup: NFC & AFC
  • Expert Picks: Legal Sports Betting
  • Venue: Gillette Stadium
  • Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
  • Date: October 3, 2021
  • Time: 7:20 pm
  • TV: NBC
  • Bet: BetMGM | 888 | Borgata

BETTING ODDS

  • Money-Line: New England Patriots +260, Buccaneers -320
  • Total: Over/Under 49

Betting information

It will be another primetime game for the Buccaneers, with the game set to be played on Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is at 7:20 p.m. CT on Sunday, Oct. 03, from Gilette Stadium. The Patriots enter this game as a 7-point underdog with an over/under of 49 points. New England Patriots are +260 on the money line, Buccaneers -320.

Sunday’s Buccaneers-Patriots showdown has been the event we’ve waited for ever since Brady announced he was moving south. It has been the one date Patriot fans have had to look forward to, suffering through a 7-9 campaign, and now, watching a product that might be lucky to have that many wins at the end of the season. Brady is back. Then, he’ll be gone. Again.

What then? Are teams figuring out the 15th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft? His completion percentage, passer rating, and yards per attempt have all decreased in each of the past two weeks.

Jones isn’t making terrible decisions — his alarming throw rate (12%) and on-target rate (78.6%) are both fine, and his average release time (2.72 seconds) isn’t terrible either. But he hasn’t had much success throwing downfield. As a result, Jones’ average completed air yards (4.9) is in the bottom 10 of the league, and he has the third-lowest average air yards differential. Those stats are courtesy of Next Gen Stats.

This might be the week Jones figures it out. He’s playing at home against the NFL’s 32nd-ranked pass defense (allowing 338.3 yards per game) and the NFL’s 32nd pass rush (sacking the opposing quarterback just 2.1% of the time). In addition, the Bucs are atrocious on third down, allowing conversions on 53.2% of the time (29th in the NFL).

The Patriots are in a rebuilding mode, and by the time Brady finally does hang them up, Mac Jones might turn into one of the league’s most consistent signal-callers. But it’s not happening in 2021, and Sunday is only going to be an extension of the confusion that the kid suffered through last Sunday against New Orleans.

Belichick knows all of Brady’s strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies. But here’s the thing — Brady knows what makes Belichick tick too.

Brady, surrounded by perhaps the best weapons of his career, is having another terrific season. Through three weeks, he’s first league-wide in passing touchdowns (10), second in the NFL in passing yards (1,087), seventh in QBR (66.3), and ninth in passer rating (109.3).

Belichick, meanwhile, infused a bunch of free-agent talent into his defense this offseason, and it shows. As a result, the Patriots rank first in interception rate (6.2%), second in pass defense (159.7 yards per game), and fourth in sack rate (11.1%). Talk about strength vs. strength.

Pick of the Game

For a game at Gillette featuring an excellent Patriots defense, I do wonder how New England will be able to generate enough offense to pull off the upset. The Buccaneers gain, on average, 1.5 more yards per play than the Patriots. But the Patriots surrender on average 1.1 fewer yards than the Buccaneers. We lean Tampa Bay here but think it’ll be a closer game than most. So go ahead and take New England Patriots +7.  We have a Touchdown in the spread, and the game will be closer than many think. Gilette stadium will show their support for both QB´s but when game time, there can be only one New England QB, and that´s Mac Jones for years to come.

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